How wrong is your flood model?
When is a flood model right and when is it wrong? Hydraulic models may produce impressive flood maps and animations, but they are all wrong! Behind the maps and animations, are varying degrees of uncertainty attributable to: accuracy of the input data; hydrologic modelling uncertainties; degree of model calibration; validity of adopted parameters; model discretisation; and computational accuracy. So, how wrong is the model, and how do we, as an industry, quantify wrong? Where is the evidence base that a model is right? Modellers and stakeholders need to appreciate the uncertainties associated with their flood modelling to ensure it is fit-for-purpose, used appropriately and is producing reliable and defendable results. Knowledge is key, and without a solid understanding of the modelling uncertainties, informed decisions are difficult. The presentation presents examples and discusses: when and where different modelling solutions are applicable; new developments in advancing the computational solution; the fundamental importance of calibration and sensitivity testing; and why one model may produce different results to another.Back to all speakers