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Convened by:

18-20 June 2019

Telford International Centre, UK

Lucy Bricheno

Lucy Bricheno

Lucy Bricheno

Senior Modeller, National Oceanography Centre Speaking On: Day 3 (22nd March) Session: Understanding future flood and coastal risk
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  • Changes in extreme wave conditions around the UK in response to high-end climate scenarios

What will happen to the wave climate of North West Europe under a changing climate? We focus on coastal changes in extreme sea levels, storminess and waves, considering changes in extreme waves which have a different signal to the changing mean wave climate. Projections of coastal wave impacts under high-end climate change (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios have been made, using CMIP5 climate winds downscaled at high resolution. We explore the change in present day storm climate around the UK, then make future projections of wave climate out to the year 2100. We present novel results, showing the impacts of climate change on waves at a local, coastal scale.

 There are still uncertainties in the North Atlantic storms generated in the latest climate models and we examine the downscaled forcing data in order to estimate how well extreme winds are reproduced. We will discuss if and where the dynamical downscaling has added value to predictions of extreme waves at the coast.

The downscaled wave forecasts from this single model, will then be put into context of 8 global wave models, to investigate any robustness of future change signals in a multi-model ensemble.

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