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Convened by:

18-20 June 2019

Telford International Centre, UK

Mike Walkden

Mike Walkden

Mike Walkden

Associate Director, WSP Speaking On: Day 3 (22nd March) Session: Understanding future flood and coastal risk
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  • Demonstrating the use of UKCP18 sea level rise trajectories to map future shoreline erosion 

In 2018 the Defra and BEIS-funded UKCP18 project will deliver climate change projections for the UK to replace those provided by UKCP09.  These will include new sea level rise (SLR) trajectories.  In parallel, the Environment Agency funded project Cliff and Shore Erosion under Accelerating Sea Level Rise is mapping the expected sensitivity of the cliffed shores of the regions of England and Wales to SLR.  The two studies are linked through a UKCP18 Demonstration Project, which uses synthetic representations of the new projections to simulate the transformation of shore profile shape and the associated acceleration of shoreline recession.

This paper will present the work of that Demonstration Project.  It will illustrate the features of the new sea level rise trajectories and explain key differences to those delivered by UKCP09.  Lessons learned during their practical application will be explained, including their relationship with historic tide data, the handling of baseline year, and the use of uncertainty bands. Finally, the paper will describe how the sensitivity of cliffed shores to sea level rise is being mapped for English and Welsh regions in a form that can readily be applied in practice to better understand coastal erosion risk over the next century.

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